Narrative Manipulation: Impact & Policy

Narrative Intelligence Part II

Maintaining clarity in the information environment is critical for US national security - and our adversaries appear to be leveraging social media platforms - X, Facebook, etc - as major attack vectors for disseminating narrative manipulation (misinformation & disinformation).  The goal is to create confusion, chaos, and divide people within the United States and European Union. Most recently, the world has seen the impact of this practice throughout the Israel-Hamas war.  The efforts of affiliates and supporters of Hamas flooded social media from the first week of the Israeli-Hamas conflict with false stories following the terrorist organization’s horrific, immoral attack on Israel.  

Narrative Manipulation is willfully or mistakenly spread false or misleading stories about the world. It encompasses terms like misinformation, disinformation, propaganda, fake news, and many more.

While both true and false information has been spread through the months-long conflict, it is informative to look at the dis-information that spread during the initial week of the conflict. First impressions are lasting ones.  The initial narrative manipulation - which was often posted with ill-intent and frequently spread unwittingly -  included:

• Miscaptioning of parachute gliders as Hamas versus the reality of a ceremony at the Egyptian Military Academy in Cairo¹, 

• Reporting that Cristiano Ronaldo had worn a Palestinian flag after a soccer match versus the truth that the photo is of a Moroccan player celebrating after a 2022 World Cup match²,

• Claiming that Bellingcat had reported the selling of weapons, ammunition, and drone to Hamas from Ukraine versus Bellingcat (and the BBC) clearly refuting the attribution as false³,

• Stating that Israeli generals had been captured by Hamas by leveraging a photo of separatists captured in Azerbaijan⁴, 

• Claiming a video of a terrorist shooting down a helicopter as real when in actuality, the video was from the video game - Arma3⁵, and 

• Finally, Representative Ilhan Omar reposting a photo of “children murdered by Israeli Forces” versus the reality that the image was of child victims of a gas attack by Assad’s Syrian regime⁶,

The dis-information has included altered images, mis-attributed videos, false appeals to celebrities, and fooled politicians.  It has spread in a time of crisis.  For example, Hamas’ Telegram channel tripled its followership in just over a week following the initial terrorist attack.  The end result was the creation of a fog of war that is capable of swaying public opinion.  Constructive public discourse will become increasingly difficult if facts are no longer trusted.  

The explosion at the al-Ahli Hospital in October 2023 was a Rorschach test for narrative manipulation early in the war.

Also, it is important to note that the scope of the issue also extends to understanding the potential manipulation of the United States population by our allies. We must, in other words, take into consideration information warfare in its totality.   And there has certainly been greater scrutiny of Israel’s practice of “Hasbara”, a form of state-backed propaganda that serves Israel’s interests.

This flurry of disinformation put a spotlight on the broader narrative manipulation of foreign actors seeking to influence US and EU domestic populations. The typical geopolitical adversaries are seeking to twist narratives to their advantage.  Russia’s GRU creates false narratives, creates fake “authoritative sources” - think tanks, news sites, & facebook accounts, and then use bots and trolls to spread the narratives. They are not alone.  Iran has “Endless Mayfly.”  China has “Dragonbridge.⁷”

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The problem is only getting worse on multiple dimensions.  First, identifying false information will get exponentially harder with AI and Deep Fakes.  Second, social media corporations have not sufficiently advanced governance - with the X platform actually dramatically reducing the size of its misinformation teams.  Finally, any steps by the US government will at the minimum face significant public mistrust and will likely run the risk of violating the First Amendment.  President Joe Biden discovered this threat when he launched the Disinformation Governance Board. 

All of the nefarious efforts - now and in the future - are a greater threat combined than any specific individual false narrative. The larger threat, as Brookings Institute has reported, is the erosion of trust and lack of confidence in democracy.  The warning signs exist.  CNN reported that the percentage of people who had little or no confidence that elections reflect the will of the people grew from 40% to 56% from January 2021 to February 2022.  And this lack of confidence has led to confidence to 76% of respondents thinking US instability is a greater threat than external adversaries⁸.  The irony is that this lack of confidence is partially being driven by foreign adversaries.  It is a chicken-and-egg issue.

Protecting and strengthening the information environment will require collaboration across the private and public sector in creating a holistic strategy to combat disinformation.  The building block of any strategy would likely include:

1. Encouraging critical thinking and problem solving as core curriculum

2. Launching media literacy classes for grades 6 through 12.

3. Closing loopholes to the Foreign Agents Registration Act as has been proposed by Representatives Risch and Cornyn⁹.

4. Investing in US Cyber Command to further strengthen tools to identify foreign adversary trolls / bots - as well as the ability to block them.

5. Passing legislation to require appropriate levels of information governance on social media sites.

6. Providing tools to show the lineage of photos and videos through metadata exposed to consumers.

7. Leveraging the venture community to create solutions that automatically identify, tag, and report disinformation.  These solutions are critical to keep pace with our adversaries.  They must be automated so disinformation cannot go viral. 

And of course, this comprehensive strategy needs to be debated openly as every action has pros and cons.  It will not be an easy effort; however, it is a necessary one.  If we lose the truth, we will risk losing our ability to have a fully functioning democracy.

1. Source;  Reuters; Rachel Kennedy, Israel-Hamas War:  Fact-Checking Online Misinformation.  October 9, 2023

2. Source:  DW; Fact check: Kathrin Wesolowski | Ines Eisele, Fake videos about Hamas attack on Israel, October 10, 2023

3. Source:  AP News, Unknown, Misinformation about the Israel-Hmas War Is Flooding Social Media.  October 30, 2023.

4. Source: CNN; Sean Lyngaas, Donie O'Sullivan, Clare Duffy,  Elon Musk’s X adds to fog of war at outset of Israel-Hamas conflict, October 10, 2023

5. Source: CNN; Sean Lyngaas, Donie O'Sullivan, Clare Duffy, Elon Musk’s X adds to fog of war at outset of Israel-Hamas conflict, October 10, 2023

6. Source:  National Review; Haley Strack, Ilhan Omar Accuses Israel of Perpetrating ‘Child Genocide in Palestine’ Using 2013 Syria Image.  October 16, 2023

7. Source:  Tactics of Disinformation.  The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).

8. Source;  Brookings Institute, Gabriel R Sanchez and Keesha Middlemass.  Misinformation Is Eroding the Public's Confidence in Democracy.  July 26, 2022.

9. Source;  Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  Risch Joins Cornyn, Colleagues in Introducing Bill to Prevent Foreign Adversaries from Influencing U.S. Policy.  February 11, 2023