How AI & OSINT can transcend defense blind spots

There is a famous Eastern parable about blind people touching an elephant. The fable is about a group of blind people who have never seen an elephant before. They each learn to imagine what an elephant is by feeling a different part of the animal’s body. One person touches the trunk, and thus envisions an elephant as a long snake. Another person touches the elephant’s leg and pictures an elephant as a coarse, wide tree trunk. As more people touch various parts of the elephant, they have different perceptions of what the animal must look like – a fan (the ear), a rope (the tail), a pointy spear (the tusk). They walk away with incomplete and disparate ideas of the holistic elephant, though each person is convinced that they have the full, correct picture.

The world of defense planning and forecasting is not unlike the blind people touching the elephant. It is a complex system with countless variables, uncertainties, and dynamic conditions. In this edition of Field Notes, we’ll explore how artificial intelligence, combined with open source intelligence, can unveil the true nature of the "elephant" and enable better strategic planning. OSINT is a valuable resource for defense organizations, but the sheer volume of data generated every day can be overwhelming. This is where AI comes into play, enhancing the capabilities of OSINT to make more accurate predictions and forecasts.

In a national security context, AI-driven OSINT can shed light on a broad spectrum of concerns, enhancing our understanding of intricate defense-related issues. By assessing emerging technologies or weapons systems developed by adversaries, it informs decision-makers of potential shifts in the balance of power. It also aids in evaluating tactics employed by non-state actors like terrorist organizations, uncovering patterns that suggest insider threats or security breaches. Furthermore, AI-driven OSINT can keep track of disinformation campaigns and their influence on public opinion, detect vulnerabilities in supply chains that adversaries might exploit, and examine events’ repercussions on the probability of instability, allowing for more proactive responses. These applications serve as a catalyst for the adoption of even more advanced technologies.

One of the core technologies that facilitates the integration of AI and OSINT is Natural Language Processing, which lets computers understand, interpret, and generate human language. By leveraging NLP, AI-driven OSINT systems can extract relevant information from text data sources (like news, articles, social media posts, and public records). These systems can analyze the sentiment and emotions expressed in textual data, revealing public perceptions about specific events, topics, or organizations. Social network analysis can also identify individual and group relationships, highlighting key influencers, allies, and adversaries, and providing insights into the social and cultural dimensions of defense-related issues.

Another aspect of AI-driven OSINT is the analysis of visual content. Machine learning algorithms can automatically identify and classify objects and activities within pictures and videos. This capability is especially useful for analyzing satellite and drone imagery, helping to detect changes in the environment, track the movements of assets, and identify potential threats. AI-driven OSINT systems have an advantage over humans in their ability to detect anomalies and deviations from normal patterns or trends, allowing decision-makers to respond to developments proactively. As new data sources become available or existing sources evolve, AI-integrated OSINT systems can quickly incorporate the new information into their analysis. They also continuously learn and improve over time, refining models and algorithms based on the latest data and feedback (not unlike the “OODA loops” humans in the military already employ). In this way, we can combine the best of both AI and human analysis, while still surfacing patterns, trends, and relationships within data that might be overlooked by human error. 

In scenarios like Russia’s incursion into Ukraine or tensions between China and Taiwan, the value of AI-driven OSINT for defense and strategic planning is clear. By analyzing copious data from open sources, it can monitor troop movements, anticipate attack strategies, and pinpoint key supply routes. Interestingly (and more subtly), it could also mitigate the effects of human fallibility on decision-making processes and public opinion. The technology could help clarify disinformation campaigns that exploit human vulnerability, offering reliable, verifiable information in their stead. It not only bolsters decision-making but also has the potential to strengthen public trust in those decisions, fostering transparent, accurate public discourse essential for democratic societies. Ultimately, the fusion of AI and OSINT could combat the potential pitfalls of human bias and susceptibility to disinformation, fostering more resilient and effective responses to our complex geopolitical environment.

By embracing the synergy between AI and OSINT, we can move beyond the defense apparatus’s fragmented understanding of the "elephant" and develop a more comprehensive and accurate perception of the world. AI-driven OSINT systems provide the means to effectively process, analyze, and derive insights from huge amounts of data, revealing hidden links that human analysts might miss. Weaving combined AI and OSINT technologies into defense strategies will better equip our country to address potential threats proactively, transforming our disjointed view of the "elephant" into a holistic and informed perspective.